It was the best of times, it was the worst of times.

No, okay, it was basically the best of times.

After being excluded from the Daytona 500, the Fontana race two weeks ago was a breath of fresh air for me: Matt Kenseth held the outright victory, and Greg Biffle did his part by taking down Casey Mears in a head-on showdown. to head. head game. Kenseth’s win gives us a lot of funding for a race in Las Vegas that should be insane.

Las Vegas Motor Speedway used to be a flat track – low incline when cornering, so brakes were extremely important. Now LVMS has completely changed: it has 20 degrees of lean in the turns and eight degrees in the front and rear sections. These factors, plus a slippery race surface, should combine to make Sunday’s race incredibly fast and a festival of crashes. Will Vegas now be the fastest track in Nextel Cup races? It could very well be. In terms of setup, the new Vegas looks a lot like the new Homestead, and these car setups will be attractive cousins ​​to the high-torque setups at Bristol and Dover. We should look at the results of all those tracks (especially Homestead) when making our picks this week. Let’s do it.

Last week: Kenseth’s win at +1656 (and Biffle’s H2H win at -180) made up for our failures at Daytona. For the year, then, we sit at 1.48 net positive units, out of three total units bet; that’s a 49.3% return on the young season.

Take Jimmie Johnson (+650), 1/6 unit. The # 48 car was coming in two Sundays ago, but Johnson made a rare mistake when accelerating on Pit Row, and was never able to get back in front late in the race. In fact, JJ finished third at Fontana, indicating that his cookie cutter program is alive and well. I’ve said it many times, but there’s no better driver / boss combo than Johnson and Chad Knaus when it comes to tuning that day’s car to maximize arrival. Add to this mix the fact that Johnson has been very strong in the reconfigured Homestead (a crash-induced second, third, ninth and 40th place), and it’s a great bet for Sunday.

Take Kasey Kahne (+500), 1/6 of a unit. Kahne was super fast at Fontana, befitting his status as the current king of downforce tracks. Unfortunately, his engine blew out even halfway through the race, giving him a terrible 38th place. This Friday, Kahne returned to his old tricks on an downforce track, practicing faster and then qualifying on pole. You have to believe that the week off came at a good time for group # 9; They went back to the shop, found out what went wrong with the engine program at Fontana, and will continue from there. It has been speculated that the switch from leaded fuel to unleaded fuel was somehow to blame for Kahne’s problems, but that seems far-fetched. I think Evernham’s engines stick together this week and finish strong.

Take Kevin Harvick (+1200), 1/6 of a unit. Don’t underestimate Happy. He probably should have already won two races this year; he won at Daytona, of course, and was tracking Kenseth at Fontana with a faster car when a red flag went up, after which he suffered a puncture and finished 17th. Don’t discount the value of momentum, and Richard Childress’s cars have a ton. I also look at the recent past of # 29 in Homestead, Bristol and Dover, and I see a pattern of excellence. At Homestead, Harvick has the second-best finishing average of any driver since reconfiguration (behind only Greg Biffle (+2000)); he finished second, fifth, eighth and 10th in those four events. He didn’t look very good in first practice or qualifying, but his teammate Jeff Burton (+1200) did, and maybe # 31 shares some notes with Happy. I still like this bet.